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Economy

Via The Huffington Post

Paul Krugman has recently taken a keen interest in the rise of robots and automation — an issue that I have been focusing on since the publication of my book on this subject back in 2009.

In a recent post, Krugman says the following:

Smart machines may make higher GDP possible, but also reduce the demand for people — including smart people. So we could be looking at a society that grows ever richer, but in which all the gains in wealth accrue to whoever owns the robots.
I think there is a fundamental problem with this way of thinking: as jobs and incomes are relentlessly automated away, the bulk of consumers will lack the income necessary to drive the demand that is critical to economic growth.

Every product and service produced by the economy ultimately gets purchased (consumed) by someone. In economic terms, “demand” means a desire or need for something — backed by the ability and willingness to pay for it. There are only two entities that create final demand for products and services: individual people and governments. (And we know that government can’t be the demand solution in the long run). Individual consumer spending is typically around 70 percent of GDP in the United States.

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Via Businessweek

On Friday, Jan. 18, the thick pall of pollution that blanketed Beijing earlier in the week returned, raising readings to hazardous levels.

Why is Beijing susceptible to these episodes? First, and uncontrollable by the authorities, are the peculiarities of Beijing’s geography. In particular, the capital is surrounded by mountain ranges that lead to the unfortunate phenomenon of an inversion layer—cold air settles on top of a warmer air mass, trapping the pollutants inside. This is the same problem that bedevils Los Angeles.

Beyond the misfortune of geography, though, lie a number of factors that have everything to do with China’s policies. Even as Beijing has moved much heavy industry out of the city limits, there has been a surge of industrialization in neighboring provinces like Hebei, home to major steel and cement industries. Beijing’s steel giant Shougang, for example, has relocated to the port city of Caofeidian, Hebei, some 200 kilometers away. And pollution no doubt has been exacerbated by years of investment-led growth that led to a huge jump in industrial production, with China producing vast quantities of steel, aluminum, and cement, even when underlying demand hasn’t kept up.

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Via Businessweek

We’ve been arguing for some time that Twitter is becoming a media entity in its own right, and some of the company’s moves around the Summer Olympics and other events have helped flesh out that theory. John Battelle of Federated Media argues much the same thing in a new blog post. He says Twitter wants to become a media company and that doing so means curating and even creating or “co-creating” content for its users. While this is undoubtedly true, Twitter is going to need to become a lot better at relevance and discovery if it really wants to be a new-media player.

In his post, Battelle describes how his thinking has been influenced by some of the recent offerings Twitter has come up with around broadcast events such as the “Oscars Index,” (a partnership with Topsy), which tracks sentiment around Oscar-nominated movies and personalities leading up to the Academy Awards by analyzing tweets about them. Although Battelle doesn’t mention it, Twitter recently announced an even more ambitious effort to create a verified “Twitter TV Rating” for TV shows as part of a partnership with media-metrics company Nielsen (NLSN).

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Via The New York Times

As I waited with a throng of Parisians in the Rambuteau Metro station on a blustery day, my frozen toes finally began to thaw. Alone we may have shivered, but together we brewed so much body heat that people began unbuttoning their coats. We might have been penguins crowding for warmth in Antarctica’s icy torment of winds. Idly mingling, a human body radiates about 100 watts of excess heat, which can add up fast in confined spaces.

Heat also loomed from the friction of trains on the tracks, and seeped from the deep maze of tunnels, raising the platform temperature to around 70 degrees, almost a geothermal spa. As people clambered on and off trains, and trickled up and down the staircases to Rue Beaubourg, their haste kept the communal den toasty.

Geothermal warmth may abound in volcanic Iceland, but it’s not easy to come by in downtown Paris. So why waste it? Savvy architects from Paris Habitat decided to borrow the surplus energy from so many human bodies and use it to supply radiant under-floor heating for 17 apartments in a nearby public housing project, which happens to share an unused stairwell with the metro station. Otherwise the free heat would be lost by the end of the morning’s rush hour.

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Via The New York Times

Just before the Christmas break, negotiations on the so-called fiscal cliff ended on an absurdist note. House Republicans not only rejected President Obama’s overly generous budget deal, including his offer to lift the income threshold for higher tax rates to $400,000 a year from $250,000, they also rejected their own leadership’s proposal to raise the threshold for higher taxes to $1 million and to preserve tax breaks for the heirs of multimillion-dollar estates.

Most of the fiscal-cliff discussion has focused on higher income tax rates from the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts and automatic across-the-board spending cuts. But failure to reach a deal by year-end would also bring about deeper and more immediate pain for low- and middle-income Americans.

No deal means the end of federal unemployment benefits, averaging $290 a week. Some two million people would be cut off immediately, and nearly one million more who would be cut off in the first quarter of 2013. It means the end of the 2 percent payroll tax cut, which, for the past two years, has reduced taxes for 125 million households, boosting pay by nearly $1,000 a year for the typical household making $50,000.

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Via Businessweek

This will be short as I’m writing on an iPhone. (They did not have iPhones at Iwo Jima.)

On cue, our fearless leaders are migrating to impasse. Each and every interview suggests varied outcomes with one major hedge. That hedge is business as usual.

Others can watch the “leadership.” I will focus on the likes of the senator, he who exits Stage Omaha soon.

Nelson (D-Warren Buffett), and across the aisle Snowe of Maine, illustrate a vanishing common sense that seems to elude Teams Polarized seeking smoking guns.

This middle ground is in my very fabric.

Panic, as described by the senator, will descend. It is 2012 and we step in our collective and mean fog toward the edge of the cliff.

Good Ben Nelson is channeling my congressman, my political hero. The representative learned Japanese, fought at Iwo Jima, encored in Korea, and then served, seeking debate and compromise. He, on a dark evening, told his friend Dick Nixon it was over.

In this selfish time, as Nelson exits, we all, all, must beg “Washington”: Please find your Barber B. Conable.

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Via Businessweek

Prepare for record hot air.

Anyone who tells you the debate over the so-called (and I mean so-called) fiscal cliff should be opaque … is lying.

Douglas Elmendorf and the 235 (Two Hundred Thirty-Five! Are you kidding me? The best use of tax dollars known to mankind) bodies of the CBO provide page after page of blinding non-mathy clarity on our debt and deficit.

There are no excuses. Get smarter. Start with a given executive summary. Move to reading a given chart, and read the damn footnotes. Read an entire article, carefully.

Friends! Americans! Politicians!

Lose your ignorance of all things Budget.

America begs you to get smarter before opening mouth. Informed awaits you, far below. Learn by leaping off the alternative intelligent cliff.

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By Phineas Upham

Defining and Developing Competence: A Strategic Process Paradigm by McGrath, MacMillan, and Venkataraman attempts to provide a more rigorous level of methodological testability and explication to the antecedents and nature of competence. To do this the authors decompose and analyze some antecedents to competence in 160 new initiatives in 40 organizations from 16 counties. Based on their reading of the literature, they test for comprehension of the problem/issues, deftness or how smoothly (without excess communication or wasted effort) the team works together and finally emerging competence or the teams’ ability to meet goals and expectations. The authors emphasize that they are attempting to do a study which will be a standard upon which other literature can build. They seem to believe that strategic work on competence has been lacking in the carefulness, explication, and simplicity which they work hard to achieve. They take special care to say that their study is reproducible and based on previous literature.

This essay raises the question: How should strategic research be approached? What methodologies should be used to study it? How much testability is necessary? And what methodological approach will result in the most long-term gains in understanding? McGrath, MacMillan and Venkataraman seem to believe that the best (or perhaps a very good) approach is one which is significantly more hypothesis driven and testable than most research in strategy at their time. In order to address this belief, they take the unit of analysis down to the project and develop measures and questionnaires to put to the team members. They also ask the respondents to measure the team I terms of “competence” or fulfilling objectives under financial and temporal constraints.

There are numerous potential problems with approaching strategic issues from this methodological perspective, and also some real advantages. On the plus side, such an approach leads to results that are disprovable, explicit, and usually relatively clear. The body of literature that would result from such projects could be mutually supportable, mutually reinforcing, and, potentially, could build on each other to reach some well established truths about the makeup, antecedents, and nature of sound strategic behavior. The approach the authors advocate seems to me to be very much like the approach currently favored in organizational behavior and, indeed, the authors seem to use the same scope, methodologies, and precautions that a good OB researcher would use.

On the other hand, I can foresee numerous disadvantages to such a methodology, especially such a methodology used as the dominant one in strategic research. Firstly, such a pursuit will tend to discover components, elements and antecedents to capabilities, strategic advantage, and such concepts. It will tend to atomize research and split it into highly specialized camps studying very specific phenomena closely, making very general theorizing difficult. But one of the most interesting and innovative areas of strategy is the general theoretical and conceptual frameworks for thinking about strategy that have arisen in such authors as Prahalad, Doz, Porter, Winter, and Hamel. Many of these insights could not be quantified or tested in any easily conceivable way. Despite the authors claim early in the article, testing such atomistic phenomena would tend to deemphasize the firm-level and industry level sort of approaches that can result in very interesting and fruitful insight.

Secondly, such an approach has, I would argue, a knowledge accumulation curve associated with it which is seductive and in some ways dangerous. By studying groups and the antecedents to competence, I argue that a high learning curve will be initially reached. Some core truths will emerge from this methodology that will excite researchers and make significant leaps in understanding. But as these truths are discovered a reduction of the rate of learning follows. Many concepts in strategy are not suitable to this sort of analysis since they are very complex, dynamic, and multidimensional (perhaps even resulting from different characteristics in different times and places).

Thirdly, strategy is a phenomenon that lives in a very rich and multi-faceted context. Firms compete against each and groups compete against each other. It is very hard to capture or measure such complexity. Perhaps the best way to approach such complexity is to look at results rather than processes.

Fourthly, there is an implicit assumption in the essay that this sort of analysis, applied here to groups, can be eventually broadened to generate insights in firm level analysis. I do not think this will be as easy or as fruitful as it appears. The very nature of competence is such that no individual member may be aware of the nature of the competence or where it resides. Thus, I believe such an approach, for all its promise, has a circumscribed area of fruitfulness.
In conclusion, this paper is good demonstration of what the authors believe is an important new methodology in strategy research. It advocates this methodology and attempts, through an empirical study of the antecedents of group level competence to demonstrate its value. I have discussed the advantages and promises of such an approach, which are many, and I have hypothesized about some potential disadvantages if the mainstream of the strategy field were to get caught up in this approach. Thus, while I think researchers should pursue this approach, and valuable results will be derived from it, I believe that mainstream strategic research would be benefited in maintaining its eclectic, sometimes undisciplined, and meandering ways.

About the Author

Phineas Upham is a frequent contributor to the Editorial Reader, writing on subjects as diverse as economics and philosophy. His writing examines the intersections of complex social institutions, and how they relate to productivity and innovation. For more information, visit his website at Phineas-Upham.com.

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Via The New York Times

The economy will not recover until the housing market recovers, and the housing market will not recover until the broader economy recovers — a chicken-and-egg problem reflected, once again, in national housing figures.

Sales of new and existing homes rose in July, propelled by low prices and low mortgage rates, according to government and industry data released this week. But even with a 25 percent year-over-year increase for new-home sales and 10 percent for existing homes, the pace of sales is still far below that of a healthy market.

High unemployment, poor jobs, stagnating wages and tight lending standards keep buyers away, while many sellers — especially the estimated 13 million homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth — are waiting for a price rebound.

Full article here

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The complex ownership structure behind IKEA, the world’s largest furniture retailer created by billionaire Ingvar Kamprad, became more transparent last week after IKEA’s franchisor published its financial performance publicly for the first time.

The new details allow for a more complete valuation of the secretive IKEA empire, increasing the Bloomberg Billionaires Index estimate of Kamprad’s fortune by more than $1.4 billion, to almost $39 billion.

Full Story: Bloomberg.com

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